Births per woman
So the total birth rate has changed since 1970.
By 2050, more than half of world population growth will be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to the latest UN forecasts, the world’s population will increase from the current 7.7 billion people to 9.7 billion by 2050 and to 10.9 billion people by 2100.
The population of China, the most densely populated country in the world, according to UN experts , will decrease slightly: by 2050, by 2.2% percent – the Chinese will be reduced by 31.4 million people. And India, according to their forecasts, will overtake China and take first place in the world in terms of population in 2027.
The population of tropical Africa will double by 2050, to 2.5 billion people: the birth rate there is high – women currently have an average of 4.4 children. And by 2100, the UN predicts, the population of Africa will grow to about 4.3 billion.
In sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, young families have many children: between 2015 and 2020, 62 million children were born whose mothers were between 15 and 19 years old.
“Populations in the world’s poorest countries are growing rapidly, and this leads to difficulties in combating poverty, inequality and hunger,” said Liu Zhenming, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
The report noted another trend: in a number of countries, the mortality rate will exceed the birth rate. We are talking about Russia, Germany, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Serbia, Belarus and Ukraine. However, according to a UN study, population loss is offset by immigration, especially in Belarus, Estonia, and Germany.
According to experts, if now in the world there are 2.5 newborns per average woman per woman, then by 2050 2.2 children per woman are forecasted. Thus, the birth rate, in this case, is only slightly higher than the required generational change ratio – 2.1 children per woman. The report notes that the world’s population is aging, and this primarily applies to the countries of Europe and North America: the expected life expectancy in these countries by 2050 is an average of 77.1 years, currently 72.6 years.
“By 2050, a quarter of the population of Europe and North America may be over 65. It is expected that a higher proportion and number of older people in the coming decades will put increased financial pressure on countries due to the higher cost of public health structures, the payment of pensions and social benefits, “the report says.